For residents of Guangdong, the return of "Hui Nan Tian" (回南天), the annual spell of sticky, moisture-laden air that coats walls and floors in water, is usually as reliable as spring itself. This year, it may not arrive at all.
The phenomenon typically occurs between January and April, when a sudden warm, humid air mass meets surfaces still chilled by winter. The result is condensation on tiles, mirrors and walls. In Guangzhou, the earliest recorded onset was January 2021; the latest, April 2023.
But 2026 has so far produced no typical weather events. Meteorologists point to an unusually mild winter as the reason.
"Last winter was the warmest on record for Guangdong," said Pan Weijuan, a senior meteorologist at the Guangzhou Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Centre. Across southern China, cold air masses have been weaker than usual, limiting the temperature contrast needed to trigger the phenomenon.
With spring temperatures now steadily rising, surfaces are staying warm. Even when humid air arrives, condensation becomes less likely. While isolated patches of dampness may occur, forecasters say a large-scale, sustained "Hui Nan Tian" is increasingly improbable.
The absence of the season's signature dampness comes as the region transitions from La Niña to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have been in a La Niña state since October 2025. Still, models suggest that phase is ending, with El Niño conditions possible by late spring.
For Guangdong, the coming months bring more practical concerns. The province is expected to enter its flood season in April, a period when extreme weather becomes more frequent. Provincial climate authorities forecast that total rainfall during the April–September flood season may be slightly above average, though unevenly distributed. Typhoons affecting the region could be fewer but more intense.
Whether the year sets temperature records remains uncertain. But for Guangdong, the more immediate reality may be a spring without its most familiar damp spell and a summer that arrives earlier than usual.
Author | Feng Huiting
Photo | Nanfang Plus
